Nebitci vs Ahal: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaMatchday 27Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Balkanabat Stadiony, Balkanabat
The Footlab AI model makes Ahal the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Nebitci. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,612 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nebitci vs Ahal?
Ahal starts as the favourite with a 256-point Elo edge (1,608 vs 1,352).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nebitci vs Ahal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nebitci
4-3-3- 10H. Amanmämmedow
- 11M. Garadanow
- 6A. Metdaýew
- 7A. Ylýasow
- 5N. Mammedaliýew
- 14A. Garajaýew
- 4M. Saparow
- 17D. Orazguliýew
- 21B. Guldurdyýew
- 20Y. Magtymow
- 1A. Kerimow
Ahal
3-5-2- 17E. Annayev
- 10E. Tagaýev
- 7Begench Mamiyew
- 5H. Bashimov
- 6N. Towakelow
- 30A. Abdyrahmanow
- 98D. Hojamammedov
- 21O. Orazov
- 3B. Gurgenov
- 4Beglimuhammet Bekmyradov
- 23K. Berdiyev
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 05:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nebitci have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Ahal have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Arkadag(away) | 0-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aşgabat(away) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Merw(home) | 3-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Şagadam(home) | 3-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2026 | Merw(away) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Şagadam(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(away) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Al Ansar(home) | 2-1 | AFC Challenge League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Al Ittihad(away) | 1-5 | AFC Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nebitci wins, 0 draws, 6 Ahal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ahal 3-0 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Nebitci 0-4 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
| May 2, 2026 | Ahal 1-0 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Nebitci 0-3 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Ahal 2-0 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Nebitci 0-1 Ahal | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nebitci score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ahal score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebitci | 1.1 | 1.8 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Ahal | 1.8 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nebitci sit 5th in Ýokary Liga (25 points from 26 matches) and Ahal sit 3rd (49 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ahal | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 28 | 49 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 24 | 45 | 25 |
A question about Nebitci vs Ahal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nebitci vs Ahal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ahal the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Nebitci.
- Where and when is Nebitci vs Ahal played?
- Nebitci vs Ahal is played on November 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Balkanabat Stadiony, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.