Ashton United vs Bury: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 19Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Hurst Cross, Ashton-under-Lyne, Greater Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Ashton United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bury wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ashton United vs Bury?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,775).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ashton United vs Bury
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ashton United
Not enough data to predict the Ashton United lineup.
Bury
Not enough data to predict the Bury lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 10:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ashton United have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Bury have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Alfreton Town(home) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leek Town(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Quorn(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Warrington Town(away) | 3-2 | FA Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Harrogate Town(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 4-3 | FA Trophy |
How many goals should we expect?
Ashton United score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bury score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton United | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Bury | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ashton United sit 16th in Non League Premier - Northern (14 points from 13 matches) and Bury sit 12th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 19 |
| 16 | Ashton United | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
A question about Ashton United vs Bury?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ashton United vs Bury?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Ashton United.
- Where and when is Ashton United vs Bury played?
- Ashton United vs Bury is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Hurst Cross, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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