Ashton United vs Leek Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 34Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Hurst Cross, Ashton-under-Lyne, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Ashton United the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Leek Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ashton United vs Leek Town?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Ashton United (1,753) and Leek Town (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ashton United have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Leek Town have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(home) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Emley(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Ashton United win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Leek Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Ashton United 0-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Leek Town 2-0 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Leek Town 3-1 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Ashton United 1-0 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Ashton United vs Leek Town on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ashton United score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leek Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton United | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Leek Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ashton United sit 5th in Non League Premier - Northern (10 points from 5 matches) and Leek Town sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ashton United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ashton United vs Leek Town?
- The Footlab model makes Ashton United the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Leek Town.
- Where and when is Ashton United vs Leek Town played?
- Ashton United vs Leek Town is played on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Hurst Cross, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.