Leek Town vs Lancaster City: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 35Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)F. Ball Community Stadium, Leek, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Leek Town the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Lancaster City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leek Town vs Lancaster City?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Leek Town (1,777) and Lancaster City (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leek Town have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Lancaster City have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Emley(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Bury(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Quorn(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Leek Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lancaster City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Lancaster City 2-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Leek Town 0-1 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Leek Town 2-1 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Lancaster City 0-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Lancaster City vs Leek Town on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leek Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lancaster City score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leek Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Lancaster City | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leek Town sit 15th in Non League Premier - Northern (5 points from 5 matches) and Lancaster City sit 18th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 18 | Lancaster City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leek Town vs Lancaster City?
- The Footlab model makes Leek Town the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Lancaster City.
- Where and when is Leek Town vs Lancaster City played?
- Leek Town vs Lancaster City is played on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at F. Ball Community Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.