Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueMatchday 7Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,775 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (2,373 vs 2,145).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 7J. McGinn
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 35João Gomes
- 10E. Buendía
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 14Pau Torres
- 22I. Maatsen
- 2M. Cash
- 1Z. Suzuki
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1- 9S. Guirassy
- 25J. Veerman
- 8F. Nmecha
- 24D. Svensson
- 7J. Bellingham
- 21Fábio Silva
- 26J. Ryerson
- 3W. Anton
- 4N. Schlotterbeck
- 5R. Bensebaïni
- 1G. Kobel
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 10:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | SV Elversberg(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Werder Bremen(home) | 3-2 | DFB Pokal |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Aston Villa wins, 0 draws, 1 Borussia Dortmund win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2024 | Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Aston Villa | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs Aston Villa on Aug 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 6th in UEFA Champions League (9 points from 4 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 12th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund?
- The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund played?
- Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund is played on January 19, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.