Fulham vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Craven Cottage, London
The Footlab model makes Fulham the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Fulham (2,124) and Aston Villa (2,202).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fulham have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Farense(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fulham win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham | Premier League |
| May 3, 2025 | Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Fulham 1-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Fulham vs Aston Villa on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fulham score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Fulham the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Fulham vs Aston Villa played?
- Fulham vs Aston Villa is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Craven Cottage, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.