Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund played?

Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund is played on January 23, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 219-point Elo edge (2,290 vs 2,071).

Hamburger SV win26 %

Draw23 %

Borussia Dortmund win51 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 1 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Verl(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hamburger SV win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Borussia Dortmund win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 21, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Nov 8, 2025	Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Feb 10, 2018	Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2017	Hamburger SV 0-3 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Apr 4, 2017	Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Nov 5, 2016	Hamburger SV 2-5 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV on Mar 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.6	1.8	1	13/15	12/15
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 13th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?: The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund played?: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund is played on January 23, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.