Match

Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaMatchday 18Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SVBorussia Dortmund

The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1. If Borussia Dortmund wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,522 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 269-point Elo edge (2,324 vs 2,054).

28%24%48%
Hamburger SV winDrawBorussia Dortmund win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Hamburger SV

3-5-2
  1. 11A. Grønbæk
  2. 27P. Daka
  1. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  2. 5M. Adeline
  3. 28M. Muheim
  4. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  5. 7Z. El Ouahdi
  1. 17W. Omari
  2. 43S. Nandja
  3. 33S. Bornauw
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1
  1. 9S. Guirassy
  1. 8F. Nmecha
  2. 24D. Svensson
  3. 25J. Veerman
  4. 7J. Bellingham
  5. 17C. Chukwuemeka
  6. 21Fábio Silva
  1. 3W. Anton
  2. 4N. Schlotterbeck
  3. 22Kouakou Joane Gadou
  1. 1G. Kobel

Computed on November 12, 2026 at 12:07 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 11, 3 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 6, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(home)3-1Bundesliga
Nov 1, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(away)1-3Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026SC Paderborn 07(away)0-1Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)1-0Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026SV Elversberg(home)2-1Bundesliga
Nov 4, 2026Real Betis(home)2-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 31, 2026Bayern München(away)2-2Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026Werder Bremen(home)3-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hamburger SV wins, 1 draw, 5 Borussia Dortmund wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 29, 2026Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Mar 21, 2026Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Nov 8, 2025Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Feb 10, 2018Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Sep 20, 2017Hamburger SV 0-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Apr 4, 2017Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV on Aug 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV1.41.938/1511/15
Borussia Dortmund2.10.968/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 11th in Bundesliga (12 points from 9 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (21 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Borussia Dortmund963016721
11Hamburger SV9405102012

A question about Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?
The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund played?
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund is played on January 23, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund