Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Fenerbahçe. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Aston Villa starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (2,291 vs 2,179).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 10E. Buendía
- 53George Hemmings
- 35João Gomes
- 7J. McGinn
- 5T. Mings
- 29A. Wan-Bissaka
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 4T. Harwood-Bellis
- 40M. Bizot
Fenerbahçe
4-2-3-1- 19V. Muriqi
- 11M. Greenwood
- 91N. Kanté
- 6M. Guendouzi
- 7K. Aktürkoğlu
- 10Marco Asensio
- 3A. Brown
- 37M. Škriniar
- 15N. Aké
- 27Nélson Semedo
- 31Ederson
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:55 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Fenerbahçe have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Turan(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Eyüpspor(home) | 8-0 | Süper Lig |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Gaziantep FK(away) | 0-0 | Süper Lig |
| Sep 10, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Beşiktaş(home) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Aston Villa win, 0 draws, 0 Fenerbahçe wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League |
Last archived meeting: Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa on Jan 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fenerbahçe score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Fenerbahçe | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 9th in UEFA Champions League (3 points from 1 match) and Fenerbahçe sit 20th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Fenerbahçe.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe played?
- Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe is played on October 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.