Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester United wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Manchester United starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (2,291 vs 2,191).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 7Lee Kang-In
- 11A. Lookman
- 10Álex Baena
- 20G. Simeone
- 6Koke
- 5J. Cardoso
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 21C. Romero
- 17D. Hancko
- 18Marc Pubill
- 13J. Oblak
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 19B. Mbeumo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 37K. Mainoo
- 9M. Rashford
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 5H. Maguire
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 1S. Lammens
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Manchester United have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Atletico Madrid wins, 1 draw, 1 Manchester United win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United 2-1 Atletico Madrid | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Manchester United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Manchester United 0-1 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Manchester United | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Manchester United | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 26th in UEFA Champions League (0 points from 1 match) and Manchester United sit 4th (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United is played on October 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.