Atalanta vs Cagliari: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Atalanta starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (2,186 vs 2,004).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Cagliari have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| May 17, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Modena(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atalanta win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Cagliari win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Atalanta 2-1 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Atalanta 0-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Cagliari 0-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Cagliari 2-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Atalanta 2-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Atalanta score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cagliari score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Cagliari | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atalanta sit 7th in Serie A (59 points from 38 matches) and Cagliari sit 14th (43 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 36 | 59 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Atalanta vs Cagliari played?
- Atalanta vs Cagliari is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.