Venezia vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia
The Footlab model makes Venezia the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Venezia (2,109) and Fiorentina (2,126).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Venezia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Fiorentina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Modena(home) | 3-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Saint Etienne(away) | 3-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 8-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | QPR(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Venezia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fiorentina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2025 | Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Fiorentina 0-0 Venezia | Serie A |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Fiorentina 1-0 Venezia | Serie A |
| Oct 18, 2021 | Venezia 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Venezia vs Fiorentina on May 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Venezia score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Fiorentina | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 50 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab model makes Venezia the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is Venezia vs Fiorentina played?
- Venezia vs Fiorentina is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.