Match

Atalanta vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

AtalantaFiorentina

The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atalanta wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?

Atalanta starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (2,115 vs 2,014).

47%26%27%
Atalanta winDrawFiorentina win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atalanta vs Fiorentina

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atalanta

4-2-3-1
  1. 90N. Krstović
  1. 13Éderson
  2. 17C. De Ketelaere
  3. 99E. Elmas
  4. 19F. Kessié
  5. 11J. Rowe
  1. 42G. Scalvini
  2. 31T. Kristensen
  3. 16R. Bellanova
  4. 77D. Zappacosta
  1. 29M. Carnesecchi

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
  1. 23Beto
  1. 30Franco Mastantuono
  2. 27C. Ndour
  3. 44N. Fagioli
  4. 42C. Inao Oulaï
  5. 29W. Gnonto
  1. 3R. Drăgușin
  2. 20Álex Jiménez
  3. 6L. Ranieri
  4. 21Valde
  1. 43David de Gea

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:43 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Fiorentina have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atalanta
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 15, 2026Pafos(home)3-1UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 12, 2026Venezia(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Juventus(away)0-2Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Cagliari(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026AS Roma(away)1-2Serie A
Fiorentina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Genoa(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Napoli(home)1-1Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Pisa(home)3-0Coppa Italia
Sep 11, 2026Venezia(away)4-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026Torino(home)1-2Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atalanta wins, 1 draw, 2 Fiorentina wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 22, 2026Fiorentina 1-1 AtalantaSerie A
Nov 30, 2025Atalanta 2-0 FiorentinaSerie A
Mar 30, 2025Fiorentina 1-0 AtalantaSerie A
Sep 15, 2024Atalanta 3-2 FiorentinaSerie A
Jun 2, 2024Atalanta 2-3 FiorentinaSerie A
Apr 24, 2024Atalanta 4-1 FiorentinaCoppa Italia

Last archived meeting: Fiorentina vs Atalanta on May 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atalanta score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atalanta1.41.058/158/15
Fiorentina2.01.5310/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atalanta sit 10th in Serie A (9 points from 6 matches) and Fiorentina sit 19th (4 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Atalanta6303889
19Fiorentina61147144

A question about Atalanta vs Fiorentina?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Fiorentina.
Where and when is Atalanta vs Fiorentina played?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Atalanta and Fiorentina

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