Match

Fiorentina vs Atalanta: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

FiorentinaAtalanta

The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Atalanta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fiorentina wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Fiorentina (2,029) and Atalanta (2,118).

38%27%35%
Fiorentina winDrawAtalanta win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
  1. 23Beto
  1. 30Franco Mastantuono
  2. 27C. Ndour
  3. 44N. Fagioli
  4. 42C. Inao Oulaï
  5. 29W. Gnonto
  1. 3R. Drăgușin
  2. 20Álex Jiménez
  3. 6L. Ranieri
  4. 21Valde
  1. 43David de Gea

Atalanta

4-3-3
  1. 17C. De Ketelaere
  2. 11J. Rowe
  3. 90N. Krstović
  1. 13Éderson
  2. 19F. Kessié
  3. 10L. Samardžić
  1. 42G. Scalvini
  2. 16R. Bellanova
  3. 31T. Kristensen
  4. 77D. Zappacosta
  1. 29M. Carnesecchi

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:13 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Atalanta have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fiorentina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Genoa(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Napoli(home)1-1Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Pisa(home)3-0Coppa Italia
Sep 11, 2026Venezia(away)4-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026Torino(home)1-2Serie A
Atalanta
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Venezia(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Juventus(away)0-2Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Cagliari(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026AS Roma(away)1-2Serie A
Aug 31, 2026Bologna(home)1-0Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fiorentina wins, 1 draw, 3 Atalanta wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 22, 2026Fiorentina 1-1 AtalantaSerie A
Nov 30, 2025Atalanta 2-0 FiorentinaSerie A
Mar 30, 2025Fiorentina 1-0 AtalantaSerie A
Sep 15, 2024Atalanta 3-2 FiorentinaSerie A
Jun 2, 2024Atalanta 2-3 FiorentinaSerie A
Apr 24, 2024Atalanta 4-1 FiorentinaCoppa Italia

Last archived meeting: Fiorentina vs Atalanta on May 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Fiorentina2.01.5310/1510/15
Atalanta1.20.967/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fiorentina sit 19th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Atalanta sit 10th (9 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Atalanta6303889
19Fiorentina61147144

A question about Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Atalanta.
Where and when is Fiorentina vs Atalanta played?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta is played on October 28, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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