Genoa vs Lecce: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Lecce. The most likely score is 1-1. If Genoa wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genoa vs Lecce?
On Elo ratings, Genoa has 1,895 points and Lecce 1,841.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Genoa vs Lecce
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 18M. Osmajić
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
- 25H. Traorè
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 22J. Vásquez
- 1J. Bijlow
Lecce
4-3-3- 50S. Pierotti
- 22Paco Esteban
- 7A. Ahmed Fatah
- 29L. Coulibaly
- 20I. Ilić
- 14Y. Maleh
- 17Danilo Veiga
- 25A. Gallo
- 5J. Siebert
- 44Tiago Gabriel
- 30W. Falcone
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:28 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genoa have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Lecce have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monza(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 0-4 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Genoa wins, 2 draws, 2 Lecce wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Lecce 1-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Genoa 0-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Genoa 2-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Lecce 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Genoa 2-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| Sep 22, 2023 | Lecce 1-0 Genoa | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Genoa score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lecce score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Lecce | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genoa sit 17th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Lecce sit 13th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Genoa vs Lecce?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Lecce?
- The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Lecce.
- Where and when is Genoa vs Lecce played?
- Genoa vs Lecce is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.