Athletic Carpi vs Giana Erminio: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 14Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Sandro Cabassi, Carpi
The Footlab model makes Athletic Carpi the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Giana Erminio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Carpi vs Giana Erminio?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Athletic Carpi (1,739) and Giana Erminio (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Carpi have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Giana Erminio have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 1-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pianese(home) | 3-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937(away) | 3-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Forli(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Albinoleffe(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Cremonese(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 6, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Trento(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Athletic Carpi win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Giana Erminio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2023 | Giana Erminio 2-0 Athletic Carpi | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Athletic Carpi 2-0 Giana Erminio | Serie D - Girone D |
Last archived meeting: Giana Erminio vs Athletic Carpi on Mar 5, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Carpi score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Giana Erminio score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Carpi | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Giana Erminio | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Carpi sit 17th in Serie C - Girone A (0 points from 1 matches) and Giana Erminio sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Athletic Carpi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Carpi vs Giana Erminio?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Carpi the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Giana Erminio.
- Where and when is Athletic Carpi vs Giana Erminio played?
- Athletic Carpi vs Giana Erminio is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Sandro Cabassi, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.