Athletic Club II vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 27Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2, Lezama
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club II the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Ponferradina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club II vs Ponferradina?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Athletic Club II (1,900) and Ponferradina (1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club II have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Ponferradina have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sestao River(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-4 | Primera División RFEF - Play Offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Athletic Club II win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Ponferradina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Ponferradina 1-0 Athletic Club II | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Athletic Club II 1-0 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2025 | Ponferradina 2-0 Athletic Club II | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Athletic Club II 0-0 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Athletic Club II on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club II score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club II | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Ponferradina | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club II sit 13th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (49 points from 38 matches) and Ponferradina sit 4th (60 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 33 | 60 |
| 13 | Athletic Club II | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 46 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club II vs Ponferradina?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club II the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Ponferradina.
- Where and when is Athletic Club II vs Ponferradina played?
- Athletic Club II vs Ponferradina is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.