Athletic Club vs Vila Nova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Joaquim Portugal, São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Athletic Club (1,827) and Vila Nova (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Vila Nova have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | America Mineiro(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Athletic Club win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Vila Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Vila Nova 1-1 Athletic Club | Serie B |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Vila Nova 1-1 Athletic Club | Serie B |
| May 7, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-1 Vila Nova | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Vila Nova vs Athletic Club on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 1.0 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 9th in Serie B (34 points from 23 matches) and Vila Nova sit 3rd (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Vila Nova played?
- Athletic Club vs Vila Nova is played on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Joaquim Portugal, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.