Goias vs Fortaleza EC: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Goiânia, Goiás
The Footlab model makes Goias the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Fortaleza EC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Goias vs Fortaleza EC?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Goias (1,861) and Fortaleza EC (1,942).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Goias have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Fortaleza EC have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | America Mineiro(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Goias win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Fortaleza EC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 4-1 Goias | Serie B |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Fortaleza EC 1-0 Goias | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Goias 1-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie A |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Goias 0-1 Fortaleza EC | Serie A |
| Jun 9, 2022 | Fortaleza EC 1-1 Goias | Serie A |
| Nov 26, 2020 | Fortaleza EC 1-1 Goias | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Goias score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fortaleza EC score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goias | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Fortaleza EC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Goias sit 10th in Serie B (33 points from 24 matches) and Fortaleza EC sit 4th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 40 |
| 10 | Goias | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Goias vs Fortaleza EC?
- The Footlab model makes Goias the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Fortaleza EC.
- Where and when is Goias vs Fortaleza EC played?
- Goias vs Fortaleza EC is played on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.