Ceara vs Sport Recife: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Ceara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ceara vs Sport Recife?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Ceara (1,849) and Sport Recife (1,874).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ceara have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Sport Recife have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nautico Recife(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 4-3 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Goias(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ceara win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Sport Recife win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sport Recife 2-0 Ceara | Serie B |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Sport Recife 1-1 Ceara | Serie A |
| Jul 10, 2025 | Sport Recife 0-0 Ceara | Copa do Nordeste |
| May 17, 2025 | Ceara 2-0 Sport Recife | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Sport Recife 2-1 Ceara | Serie B |
| Jun 21, 2024 | Ceara 0-0 Sport Recife | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Ceara score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sport Recife score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Sport Recife | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ceara sit 17th in Serie B (28 points from 24 matches) and Sport Recife sit 8th (35 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sport Recife | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 35 |
| 17 | Ceara | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 30 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ceara vs Sport Recife?
- The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Ceara.
- Where and when is Ceara vs Sport Recife played?
- Ceara vs Sport Recife is played on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.