Nautico Recife vs Botafogo SP: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Botafogo SP. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Botafogo SP?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Nautico Recife (1,856) and Botafogo SP (1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nautico Recife have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Botafogo SP have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 4-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Nautico Recife win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Botafogo SP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Botafogo SP 1-1 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Botafogo SP 1-1 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Sep 13, 2020 | Nautico Recife 3-1 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Botafogo SP vs Nautico Recife on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Botafogo SP score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Botafogo SP | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nautico Recife sit 15th in Serie B (31 points from 24 matches) and Botafogo SP sit 14th (31 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nautico Recife vs Botafogo SP?
- The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Botafogo SP.
- Where and when is Nautico Recife vs Botafogo SP played?
- Nautico Recife vs Botafogo SP is played on September 5, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.