Atletico Ascoli vs Ancona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 27Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Ascoli. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Ascoli vs Ancona?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Atletico Ascoli (1,756) and Ancona (1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Ascoli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Ancona have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Teramo(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sammaurese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Aquila(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sammaurese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fossombrone(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Atletico Ascoli win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Ancona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Ancona 2-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Ancona 1-0 Atletico Ascoli | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Atletico Ascoli 1-2 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Ancona 0-2 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Atletico Ascoli 1-2 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ancona score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Ascoli | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Ancona | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Ascoli sit 4th in Serie D - Girone F (55 points from 34 matches) and Ancona sit 2nd (76 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59 | 22 | 76 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 | 34 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Ascoli vs Ancona?
- The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Ascoli.
- Where and when is Atletico Ascoli vs Ancona played?
- Atletico Ascoli vs Ancona is played on March 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 14, 2027Sporting TrestinavsRecanatese
- Mar 14, 2027Real GiulianovavsMontecchio Gallo
- Mar 14, 2027Termoli CalciovsSantegidiese
- Mar 14, 2027Vigor SenigalliavsFoligno Calcio
- Mar 14, 2027FossombronevsPietralunga
- Mar 14, 2027L'AquilavsNotaresco
- Mar 14, 2027AngelanavsMaceratese
- Mar 14, 2027Lanciano FCvsTeramo