Atletico Ascoli vs Sporting Trestina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Sporting Trestina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Ascoli vs Sporting Trestina?
Atletico Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,757 vs 1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Ascoli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Sporting Trestina have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Teramo(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sammaurese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gubbio(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 4-4 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Prato(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sansepolcro(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Gavorrano(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Trestina score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Ascoli | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Sporting Trestina | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 | 34 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Ascoli vs Sporting Trestina?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Sporting Trestina.
- Where and when is Atletico Ascoli vs Sporting Trestina played?
- Atletico Ascoli vs Sporting Trestina is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.