Sporting Trestina vs Foligno Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Lorenzo Casini, Trestina
The Footlab model makes Sporting Trestina the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Foligno Calcio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Trestina vs Foligno Calcio?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Sporting Trestina (1,648) and Foligno Calcio (1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Trestina have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Foligno Calcio have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gubbio(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 4-4 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Prato(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sansepolcro(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Gavorrano(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Cannara(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Prato(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sporting Trestina win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Foligno Calcio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Foligno Calcio 3-1 Sporting Trestina | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Sporting Trestina 0-1 Foligno Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| May 8, 2022 | Sporting Trestina 2-0 Foligno Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Dec 22, 2021 | Foligno Calcio 1-3 Sporting Trestina | Serie D - Girone E |
| Nov 3, 2021 | Sporting Trestina 1-2 Foligno Calcio | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Jan 26, 2020 | Sporting Trestina 2-2 Foligno Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: Foligno Calcio vs Sporting Trestina on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Trestina score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Foligno Calcio score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Trestina | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Foligno Calcio | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Trestina vs Foligno Calcio?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Trestina the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Foligno Calcio.
- Where and when is Sporting Trestina vs Foligno Calcio played?
- Sporting Trestina vs Foligno Calcio is played on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Lorenzo Casini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.