Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF: prediction and stats
Friendlies ClubsClub FriendliesKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Eragudina, Astorga
The Footlab model makes Atlético Astorga the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Palencia CF. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Atlético Astorga (1,888) and Palencia CF (1,804).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Astorga have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Palencia CF have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | La Bañeza(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sarriana(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 31, 2026 | Guijuelo(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 23, 2026 | Cristo Atlético(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 17, 2026 | Cristo Atlético(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atlético Astorga win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Palencia CF win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Atlético Astorga 1-0 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Palencia CF 3-2 Atlético Astorga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Palencia CF 0-0 Atlético Astorga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Atlético Astorga 1-1 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Palencia CF 1-1 Atlético Astorga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Atlético Astorga 1-0 Palencia CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF on May 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Astorga score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Palencia CF score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Astorga | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Palencia CF | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Astorga the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Palencia CF.
- Where and when is Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF played?
- Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Eragudina, in the Friendlies Clubs.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.