Sporting CP vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 5Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Manchester United. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,920 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Manchester United?
Sporting CP starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (2,435 vs 2,278).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sporting CP vs Manchester United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sporting CP
4-3-3- 10Geny Catamo
- 97L. Suárez
- 19N. Irankunda
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 8João Simões
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 20M. Araújo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 30Kaique
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 17Andrey Santos
- 20C. Baleba
- 9M. Rashford
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 15L. Yoro
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 5H. Maguire
- 1S. Lammens
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Manchester United have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-3 | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting CP sit 7th in UEFA Champions League (6 points from 2 matches) and Manchester United sit 18th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
A question about Sporting CP vs Manchester United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Manchester United.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Manchester United played?
- Sporting CP vs Manchester United is played on November 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.