Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaMatchday 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,579 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (2,254 vs 2,128).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 19J. Álvarez
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 8Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 10Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
- 20G. Simeone
- 6Koke
- 17Dávid Hancko
- 18Marc Pubill
- 22Alejandro Grimaldo
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13Jan Oblak
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 24L. Sučić
- 9O. Óskarsson
- 7Barrenetxea
- 18Carlos Soler
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 8Beñat Turrientes
- 6Jon Martín
- 2J. Aramburu
- 19M. Sarr
- 5Zubeldia
- 1Álex Remiro
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 04:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Real Sociedad have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Bayern München(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Levante(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Levante(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lillestrom(away) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico Madrid wins, 3 draws, 0 Real Sociedad wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 3-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 4-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (28 points from 12 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 5th (22 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
A question about Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.