Malaga vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Malaga. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid is a heavy favourite: 2,325 Elo points against 2,005, a 320-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 16I. Konaté
- 12T. Alexander-Arnold
- 18Álvaro Fernández
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Real Madrid have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Malaga wins, 1 draw, 5 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Apr 15, 2018 | Malaga 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 25, 2017 | Real Madrid 3-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| May 21, 2017 | Malaga 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 21, 2017 | Real Madrid 2-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Feb 21, 2016 | Malaga 1-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Malaga on Aug 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Real Madrid sit 4th (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Malaga vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Real Madrid played?
- Malaga vs Real Madrid is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.