Villarreal vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Villarreal wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,920 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Alaves?
On Elo ratings, Villarreal has 2,150 points and Alaves 2,057.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarreal vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarreal
4-4-2- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 21T. Oluwaseyi
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 11Ilias Akhomach
- 18P. Gueye
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 12Renato Veiga
- 3A. Freeman
- 6Pau Navarro
- 25P. Gulácsi
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 10Carles Aleñá
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 21A. Rebbach
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 16V. Koski
- 1Sivera
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 10:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Alaves have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Elche(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Villarreal wins, 2 draws, 2 Alaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Alaves 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Alaves 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Villarreal 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Villarreal 3-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 12th in La Liga (9 points from 9 matches) and Alaves sit 7th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
A question about Villarreal vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Villarreal the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Alaves played?
- Villarreal vs Alaves is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.