Atlético Mineros vs Sámano: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Atlético Mineros the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sámano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Mineros vs Sámano?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Atlético Mineros (1,628) and Sámano (1,653).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Mineros have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Sámano have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2025 | Monte(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 4, 2025 | Cayón(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Bezana(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Revilla(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Colindres(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Bergantiños(home) | 0-5 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Numancia(home) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sarriana(away) | 0-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Atlético Mineros win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Sámano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | Sámano 3-0 Atlético Mineros | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Atlético Mineros 0-3 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Sámano 3-0 Atlético Mineros | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Atlético Mineros 1-4 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Sámano vs Atlético Mineros on Feb 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Mineros score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sámano score 0.6 and concede 3.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineros | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Sámano | 0.6 | 3.3 | 0 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Mineros vs Sámano?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Mineros the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sámano.
- Where and when is Atlético Mineros vs Sámano played?
- Atlético Mineros vs Sámano is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.