Velarde vs Cayón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de La Maruca, Muriedas
The Footlab model makes Cayón the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Velarde. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velarde vs Cayón?
Cayón starts as the favourite with a 212-point Elo edge (1,802 vs 1,590).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velarde have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Cayón have 7, 0 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Vimenor(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 5, 2024 | Torina(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 1, 2024 | Siete Villas(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Atlético Mineros(away) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Colindres(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Vimenor(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Cartes(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Revilla(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Velarde score 0.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cayón score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velarde | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Cayón | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cayón | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 41 | 56 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velarde vs Cayón?
- The Footlab model makes Cayón the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Velarde.
- Where and when is Velarde vs Cayón played?
- Velarde vs Cayón is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de La Maruca, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.