Auda vs FK Liepaja: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Mežaparks Sports Village, Riga
The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for FK Liepaja. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auda vs FK Liepaja?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Auda (1,774) and FK Liepaja (1,676).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auda have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; FK Liepaja have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Auda win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FK Liepaja win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Auda 3-1 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Apr 8, 2026 | FK Liepaja 1-2 Auda | Virsliga |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Auda 1-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2025 | FK Liepaja 2-0 Auda | Virsliga |
| May 24, 2025 | FK Liepaja 0-0 Auda | Virsliga |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Auda 3-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Auda score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FK Liepaja score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| FK Liepaja | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auda sit 3rd in Virsliga (49 points from 25 matches) and FK Liepaja sit 5th (37 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auda | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 26 | 49 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auda vs FK Liepaja?
- The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for FK Liepaja.
- Where and when is Auda vs FK Liepaja played?
- Auda vs FK Liepaja is played on August 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Mežaparks Sports Village, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.