BFC Daugavpils vs Auda: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils
The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for BFC Daugavpils. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Auda?
Auda starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,774 vs 1,645).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BFC Daugavpils have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Auda have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 BFC Daugavpils win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Auda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda 1-0 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| May 26, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Auda | Virsliga |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Auda 2-3 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 1-0 Auda | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Auda 1-3 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| May 20, 2025 | Auda 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Auda vs BFC Daugavpils on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Auda score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Auda | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BFC Daugavpils sit 4th in Virsliga (37 points from 27 matches) and Auda sit 3rd (49 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auda | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 26 | 49 |
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BFC Daugavpils vs Auda?
- The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for BFC Daugavpils.
- Where and when is BFC Daugavpils vs Auda played?
- BFC Daugavpils vs Auda is played on October 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Celtnieks, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.