Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto: prediction and stats
Copa de la División ProfesionalGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Félix Capriles, Cochabamba
The Footlab model makes Aurora the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Universitario de Vinto. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?
Aurora starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,545 vs 1,401).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurora have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Universitario de Vinto have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Real Potosí(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 18, 2026 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo(away) | 1-0 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Blooming(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Independiente Petrolero(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | The Strongest(away) | 3-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guabirá(away) | 1-2 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Real Tomayapo(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oriente Petrolero(away) | 0-5 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Real Potosí(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Aurora win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Universitario de Vinto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Universitario de Vinto 1-2 Aurora | Primera División |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Aurora 2-1 Universitario de Vinto | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Universitario de Vinto 2-2 Aurora | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Aurora 2-0 Universitario de Vinto | Primera División |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Universitario de Vinto 1-2 Aurora | Primera División |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Aurora 1-2 Universitario de Vinto | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Universitario de Vinto vs Aurora on Jun 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurora score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Universitario de Vinto score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Universitario de Vinto | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?
- The Footlab model makes Aurora the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Universitario de Vinto.
- Where and when is Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto played?
- Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto is played on September 19, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Félix Capriles, in the Copa de la División Profesional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.