Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo: prediction and stats
Copa de la División ProfesionalGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on September 22, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Patria, Sucre
The Footlab model makes Independiente Petrolero the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Real Tomayapo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Independiente Petrolero (1,528) and Real Tomayapo (1,438).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente Petrolero have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Real Tomayapo have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nacional Potosí(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Blooming(home) | 5-2 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | The Strongest(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aurora(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Always Ready(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Universitario de Vinto(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Real Oruro(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Guabirá(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2026 | ABB(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Independiente Petrolero win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Real Tomayapo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Real Tomayapo 2-1 Independiente Petrolero | Primera División |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Independiente Petrolero 5-2 Real Tomayapo | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Real Tomayapo 2-1 Independiente Petrolero | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Real Tomayapo 3-6 Independiente Petrolero | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Independiente Petrolero 2-0 Real Tomayapo | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Independiente Petrolero 2-1 Real Tomayapo | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Real Tomayapo vs Independiente Petrolero on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente Petrolero score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Tomayapo score 0.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Petrolero | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Real Tomayapo | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente Petrolero the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Real Tomayapo.
- Where and when is Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo played?
- Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo is played on September 22, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Patria, in the Copa de la División Profesional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.