Avilés Stadium vs Caudal: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Muro de Zaro, Avilés
The Footlab model makes Caudal the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Avilés Stadium. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avilés Stadium vs Caudal?
Caudal starts as the favourite with a 256-point Elo edge (1,903 vs 1,647).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avilés Stadium have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Caudal have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Titánico(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Atlético Central(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Atlético Central(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Avilés Stadium win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Caudal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Avilés Stadium 0-1 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Caudal 2-2 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Avilés Stadium 0-0 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Caudal 3-0 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Caudal 2-0 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Avilés Stadium 1-3 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Avilés Stadium vs Caudal on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avilés Stadium score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Caudal score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avilés Stadium | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Caudal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avilés Stadium sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (33 points from 34 matches) and Caudal sit 4th (66 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caudal | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 39 | 66 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 34 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 21 | 40 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avilés Stadium vs Caudal?
- The Footlab model makes Caudal the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Avilés Stadium.
- Where and when is Avilés Stadium vs Caudal played?
- Avilés Stadium vs Caudal is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Muro de Zaro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.