Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Somerset Park, Ayr
The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Raith Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Ayr Utd (1,756) and Raith Rovers (1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayr Utd have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Raith Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Peterhead(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ayr Utd win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Raith Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers 2-0 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Raith Rovers 3-0 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Ayr Utd 2-1 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Raith Rovers 0-2 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Ayr Utd 0-1 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Raith Rovers 1-0 Ayr Utd | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Raith Rovers score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Raith Rovers | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayr Utd sit 5th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Raith Rovers sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Raith Rovers.
- Where and when is Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers played?
- Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Somerset Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.