Bahardar vs Ethiopian Medhin: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 6Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bahir Dar Stadium, Bahir Dar
The Footlab AI model makes Ethiopian Medhin the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Bahardar. The most likely score is 0-0. If Ethiopian Medhin wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,703 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahardar vs Ethiopian Medhin?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Bahardar (1,563) and Ethiopian Medhin (1,585).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bahardar vs Ethiopian Medhin
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bahardar
Not enough data to predict the Bahardar lineup.
Ethiopian Medhin
Not enough data to predict the Ethiopian Medhin lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 03:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahardar have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Ethiopian Medhin have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fasil Ketema(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Welayta Dicha(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Halaba Ketema(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Hadiya Hosaena(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Mekelakeya(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Awassa Kenema(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gamo Chencha(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Fasil Ketema(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bahardar wins, 2 draws, 2 Ethiopian Medhin wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Ethiopian Medhin 1-1 Bahardar | Premier League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Bahardar 1-0 Ethiopian Medhin | Premier League |
| May 9, 2025 | Ethiopian Medhin 1-2 Bahardar | Premier League |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Bahardar 0-1 Ethiopian Medhin | Premier League |
| Feb 29, 2024 | Bahardar 0-0 Ethiopian Medhin | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Ethiopian Medhin 3-2 Bahardar | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Ethiopian Medhin vs Bahardar on Apr 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bahardar score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ethiopian Medhin score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahardar | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Ethiopian Medhin | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bahardar sit 7th in Premier League (7 points from 4 matches) and Ethiopian Medhin sit 6th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ethiopian Medhin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bahardar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
A question about Bahardar vs Ethiopian Medhin?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahardar vs Ethiopian Medhin?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ethiopian Medhin the favourite at 39%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Bahardar.
- Where and when is Bahardar vs Ethiopian Medhin played?
- Bahardar vs Ethiopian Medhin is played on November 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bahir Dar Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 20, 2026Fasil KetemavsEthiopia Nigd Bank
- Nov 20, 2026Welwalo Adigrat UnivsMekelakeya
- Nov 20, 2026Mebrat HaylvsHalaba Ketema
- Nov 20, 2026Negelle ArsivsGamo Chencha
- Nov 20, 2026Sheger KetemavsAwassa Kenema
- Nov 21, 2026Kedus GiorgisvsHadiya Hosaena
- Nov 21, 2026Adama KenemavsSidama Bunna
- Nov 21, 2026Ethiopia BunnavsWelayta Dicha