Negelle Arsi vs Gamo Chencha: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 53%, against 31% for a draw and 16% for Gamo Chencha. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,364 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Gamo Chencha?
Negelle Arsi starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,584 vs 1,443).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Negelle Arsi vs Gamo Chencha
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Negelle Arsi
Not enough data to predict the Negelle Arsi lineup.
Gamo Chencha
Not enough data to predict the Gamo Chencha lineup.
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 02:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Negelle Arsi have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Gamo Chencha have 0, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Sheger Ketema(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Adama Kenema(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Ethiopia Bunna(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Mebrat Hayl(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kedus Giorgis(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Awassa Kenema(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Mekelakeya(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ethiopian Medhin(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Negelle Arsi score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gamo Chencha score 0.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negelle Arsi | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Gamo Chencha | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1 | 1/4 | 1/4 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Negelle Arsi sit 1st in Premier League (11 points from 5 matches) and Gamo Chencha sit 18th (1 point from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negelle Arsi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
A question about Negelle Arsi vs Gamo Chencha?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Negelle Arsi vs Gamo Chencha?
- The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 53%, against 31% for a draw and 16% for Gamo Chencha.
- Where and when is Negelle Arsi vs Gamo Chencha played?
- Negelle Arsi vs Gamo Chencha is played on November 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 21, 2026Adama KenemavsSidama Bunna
- Nov 21, 2026BahardarvsEthiopian Medhin
- Nov 21, 2026Ethiopia BunnavsWelayta Dicha
- Nov 21, 2026Fasil KetemavsEthiopia Nigd Bank
- Nov 21, 2026Kedus GiorgisvsHadiya Hosaena
- Nov 21, 2026Welwalo Adigrat UnivsMekelakeya
- Nov 21, 2026Mebrat HaylvsHalaba Ketema
- Nov 21, 2026Sheger KetemavsAwassa Kenema