Match

Bahardar vs Mekelakeya: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bahir Dar Stadium, Bahir Dar

BahardarMekelakeya

The Footlab AI model makes Mekelakeya the favourite at 38%, against 36% for a draw and 26% for Bahardar. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mekelakeya wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,872 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bahardar vs Mekelakeya?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Bahardar (1,549) and Mekelakeya (1,565).

26%36%38%
Bahardar winDrawMekelakeya win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bahardar vs Mekelakeya

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bahardar

Not enough data to predict the Bahardar lineup.

Mekelakeya

4-3-3
  1. 27A. Yigzaw
  2. 14Mohammed Abera
  3. 35C. Kudjoe
  1. 7Bereket Desta Dana
  2. 10Abdulkarim Worku
  3. 19C. Gugsa
  1. 6G. Hagos
  2. 34N. Hailu
  3. 2F. Jemal
  4. 22C. Menberu
  1. 1Nafian Legason Alionzi

Computed on October 20, 2026 at 11:45 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahardar have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Mekelakeya have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bahardar
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Halaba Ketema(away)0-1Premier League
Oct 11, 2026Hadiya Hosaena(away)1-0Premier League
Jul 3, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(away)2-2Premier League
Jun 28, 2026Sidama Bunna(home)0-1Premier League
Jun 21, 2026Awassa Kenema(away)0-0Premier League
Mekelakeya
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home)0-1Premier League
Oct 11, 2026Awassa Kenema(away)1-0Premier League
Jul 4, 2026Hadiya Hosaena(home)0-0Premier League
Jun 28, 2026Sheger Ketema(away)0-2Premier League
Jun 21, 2026Ethiopian Medhin(home)1-0Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bahardar wins, 3 draws, 0 Mekelakeya wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 19, 2026Bahardar 1-1 MekelakeyaPremier League
Jan 10, 2026Mekelakeya 1-2 BahardarPremier League
May 19, 2025Bahardar 0-0 MekelakeyaPremier League
Jan 25, 2025Mekelakeya 1-1 BahardarPremier League
Mar 7, 2024Mekelakeya 0-1 BahardarPremier League
Oct 15, 2023Bahardar 2-1 MekelakeyaPremier League

Last archived meeting: Bahardar vs Mekelakeya on May 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bahardar score 0.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mekelakeya score 0.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bahardar0.80.865/152/15
Mekelakeya0.80.784/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bahardar sit 8th in Premier League (3 points from 2 matches) and Mekelakeya sit 5th (3 points from 1 match).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Mekelakeya1100103
8Bahardar2101113

A question about Bahardar vs Mekelakeya?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bahardar vs Mekelakeya?
The Footlab AI model makes Mekelakeya the favourite at 38%, against 36% for a draw and 26% for Bahardar.
Where and when is Bahardar vs Mekelakeya played?
Bahardar vs Mekelakeya is played on November 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bahir Dar Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Bahardar and Mekelakeya

Ready to know everything about football?