Ballinamallard United vs Glenavon FC: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ferney Park, Ballinamallard
The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Ballinamallard United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ballinamallard United vs Glenavon FC?
Glenavon FC starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (1,416 vs 1,211).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ballinamallard United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Glenavon FC have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moyola Park(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Institute(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Armagh City(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Newry City AFC(away) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Ballinamallard United win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Glenavon FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2023 | Ballinamallard United 2-2 Glenavon FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 7, 2023 | Ballinamallard United 1-2 Glenavon FC | Irish Cup |
| Mar 17, 2018 | Glenavon FC 0-0 Ballinamallard United | Premiership |
| Nov 18, 2017 | Ballinamallard United 0-3 Glenavon FC | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2017 | Glenavon FC 6-2 Ballinamallard United | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Ballinamallard United vs Glenavon FC on Jul 22, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Ballinamallard United score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Glenavon FC score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballinamallard United | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Glenavon FC | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ballinamallard United sit 9th in Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Glenavon FC sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Glenavon FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Ballinamallard United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 52 | 34 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 60 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ballinamallard United vs Glenavon FC?
- The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Ballinamallard United.
- Where and when is Ballinamallard United vs Glenavon FC played?
- Ballinamallard United vs Glenavon FC is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ferney Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.