Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 287-point Elo edge (2,385 vs 2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 11 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Barcelona win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Rayo Vallecano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Barcelona 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano is played on August 31, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.