Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,263 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (2,450 vs 2,303).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barcelona
4-2-3-1- 9Gabriel Jesus
- 10Lamine Yamal
- 8Pedri
- 16Rodri
- 17A. Gordon
- 7Fermín
- 18Gerard Martín
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 12X. Espart
- 23J. Koundé
- 1Joan García
Atletico Madrid
4-3-3- 7Lee Kang-In
- 11A. Lookman
- 19J. Álvarez
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 10Álex Baena
- 17D. Hancko
- 18Marc Pubill
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 22Álex Grimaldo
- 13J. Oblak
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 10:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Barcelona wins, 0 draws, 2 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Barcelona 3-0 Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-0 Barcelona | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Barcelona 3-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 3.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 3.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barcelona sit 1st in La Liga (27 points from 9 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (22 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
A question about Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid is played on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.