Bari vs Foggia: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 14Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari
The Footlab model makes Bari the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Foggia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bari vs Foggia?
Bari starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,811 vs 1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bari have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Foggia have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cavese(home) | 3-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Casarano(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 22, 2026 | Sudtirol(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 8, 2026 | Catanzaro(away) | 3-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Team Altamura(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Salernitana(home) | 1-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | SS Monopoli(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Siracusa(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Cosenza(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bari win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Foggia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | Foggia 2-2 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 20, 2021 | Bari 1-1 Foggia | Serie C - Girone C |
| May 19, 2021 | Bari 3-1 Foggia | Serie C - Girone A |
| Feb 27, 2021 | Bari 1-0 Foggia | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 1, 2020 | Foggia 1-0 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 21, 2018 | Foggia 1-1 Bari | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Bari score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Foggia score 0.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Foggia | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bari vs Foggia?
- The Footlab model makes Bari the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Foggia.
- Where and when is Bari vs Foggia played?
- Bari vs Foggia is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.