Bari vs Potenza: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 5Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari
The Footlab model makes Bari the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Potenza. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bari vs Potenza?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Bari (1,831) and Potenza (1,879).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bari have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Potenza have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cavese(home) | 3-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Casarano(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 22, 2026 | Sudtirol(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 8, 2026 | Catanzaro(away) | 3-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Casarano(home) | 4-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia |
| May 20, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 13, 2026 | Campobasso FC(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Bari win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Potenza win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2021 | Bari 2-0 Potenza | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 30, 2021 | Potenza 1-1 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Mar 7, 2021 | Bari 0-2 Potenza | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 11, 2020 | Potenza 1-4 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Dec 8, 2019 | Bari 2-1 Potenza | Serie C - Girone C |
How many goals should we expect?
Bari score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Potenza score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Potenza | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bari sit 2nd in Serie C - Girone C (3 points from 1 matches) and Potenza sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Bari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bari vs Potenza?
- The Footlab model makes Bari the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Potenza.
- Where and when is Bari vs Potenza played?
- Bari vs Potenza is played on September 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.