Cavese vs Sorrento: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 5Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti, Cava de' Tirreni
The Footlab model makes Cavese the favourite at 51%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Sorrento. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cavese vs Sorrento?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Cavese (1,787) and Sorrento (1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cavese have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Sorrento have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bari(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Campobasso FC(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Juve Stabia(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sarnese(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Cosenza(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giugliano(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | AZ Picerno(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Team Altamura(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Cavese win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Sorrento win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Cavese 1-0 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Sorrento 0-0 Cavese | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Cavese 1-0 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Sorrento 1-3 Cavese | Serie C - Girone C |
How many goals should we expect?
Cavese score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sorrento score 0.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavese | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Sorrento | 0.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cavese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cavese vs Sorrento?
- The Footlab model makes Cavese the favourite at 51%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Sorrento.
- Where and when is Cavese vs Sorrento played?
- Cavese vs Sorrento is played on September 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.