Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab model makes Khosilot Farkhor the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Barki Tajik. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Barki Tajik (1,348) and Khosilot Farkhor (1,434).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barki Tajik have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Khosilot Farkhor have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ravshan(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Khatlon(home) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Parvoz(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Khujand(home) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 3-3 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Istaravshan(home) | 5-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 26, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(away) | 3-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 6-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Barki Tajik win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Khosilot Farkhor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor 2-1 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2025 | Barki Tajik 0-1 Khosilot Farkhor | Vysshaya Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Khosilot Farkhor 0-3 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Barki Tajik 1-1 Khosilot Farkhor | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 10, 2024 | Khosilot Farkhor 3-0 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 30, 2017 | Barki Tajik 5-1 Khosilot Farkhor | Vysshaya Liga |
Last archived meeting: Khosilot Farkhor vs Barki Tajik on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barki Tajik score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Khosilot Farkhor score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barki Tajik | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Khosilot Farkhor | 2.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barki Tajik sit 6th in Vysshaya Liga (18 points from 14 matches) and Khosilot Farkhor sit 2nd (28 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Khosilot Farkhor | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | Barki Tajik | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor?
- The Footlab model makes Khosilot Farkhor the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Barki Tajik.
- Where and when is Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor played?
- Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor is played on October 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.