Barki Tajik vs Istiqlol: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Barki Tajik. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barki Tajik vs Istiqlol?
Istiqlol is a heavy favourite: 1,727 Elo points against 1,348 — a 378-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barki Tajik have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Istiqlol have 10, 5 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ravshan(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Khatlon(home) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Parvoz(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Khujand(home) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Barki Tajik win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Istiqlol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Istiqlol 2-0 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Istiqlol 2-1 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Barki Tajik 0-1 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Barki Tajik 1-5 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 19, 2024 | Istiqlol 9-1 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 11, 2018 | Barki Tajik 0-2 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
Last archived meeting: Istiqlol vs Barki Tajik on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barki Tajik score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Istiqlol score 1.5 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barki Tajik | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Istiqlol | 1.5 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barki Tajik sit 6th in Vysshaya Liga (18 points from 14 matches) and Istiqlol sit 3rd (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Istiqlol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | Barki Tajik | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barki Tajik vs Istiqlol?
- The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Barki Tajik.
- Where and when is Barki Tajik vs Istiqlol played?
- Barki Tajik vs Istiqlol is played on October 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.