CSKA Pomir vs Istiqlol: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Politekhnikum (CSKA MO RT), Dushanbe
The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for CSKA Pomir. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Pomir vs Istiqlol?
Istiqlol starts as the favourite with a 260-point Elo edge (1,727 vs 1,466).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Pomir have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Istiqlol have 10, 5 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Khatlon(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Khujand(away) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor(home) | 2-3 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Parvoz(home) | 1-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Regar-TadAZ(home) | 1-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 CSKA Pomir win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Istiqlol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2025 | CSKA Pomir 3-3 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Istiqlol 2-1 CSKA Pomir | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 30, 2024 | CSKA Pomir 1-2 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Istiqlol 2-0 CSKA Pomir | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 10, 2023 | CSKA Pomir 0-0 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 26, 2023 | Istiqlol 0-0 CSKA Pomir | Vysshaya Liga |
Last archived meeting: CSKA Pomir vs Istiqlol on Sep 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Pomir score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Istiqlol score 1.5 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Pomir | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Istiqlol | 1.5 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Pomir sit 4th in Vysshaya Liga (21 points from 13 matches) and Istiqlol sit 3rd (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Istiqlol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | CSKA Pomir | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Pomir vs Istiqlol?
- The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for CSKA Pomir.
- Where and when is CSKA Pomir vs Istiqlol played?
- CSKA Pomir vs Istiqlol is played on November 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Politekhnikum (CSKA MO RT), in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.