Barnet vs York: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Hive Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Barnet. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnet vs York?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Barnet (1,884) and York (1,979).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnet have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; York have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Arsenal U21(home) | 5-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Barnet win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 York win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2025 | Barnet 3-1 York | National League |
| Oct 22, 2024 | York 3-1 Barnet | National League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Barnet 2-0 York | National League |
| Sep 26, 2023 | York 2-4 Barnet | National League |
| Apr 3, 2023 | York 1-0 Barnet | National League |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Barnet 0-5 York | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
Barnet score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; York score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnet sit 1st in League Two (6 points from 2 matches) and York sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnet vs York?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Barnet.
- Where and when is Barnet vs York played?
- Barnet vs York is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Hive Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.