Gillingham vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, Kent
The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gillingham vs Newport County?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Gillingham (1,648) and Newport County (1,709).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gillingham have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Newport County have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gillingham win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Newport County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Gillingham 3-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Newport County 1-1 Gillingham | FA Cup |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Newport County 1-3 Gillingham | League Two |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Newport County 3-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Gillingham 0-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Newport County 1-0 Gillingham | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Newport County on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gillingham sit 21st in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Newport County sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gillingham vs Newport County?
- The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Gillingham vs Newport County played?
- Gillingham vs Newport County is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Priestfield Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.